Temperatures in Europe have increased at more than twice the global average

Temperatures in Europe have increased at more than twice the global average over the past 30 years – the highest of any continent in the world. This includes the Arctic which is the fastest warming region on Earth.... READ MORE

Devastating floods in Nigeria claim over 600 lives

Intense floods like those inundating Nigeria in recent weeks are expected to become more frequent as the globe continues to warm under a thickening blanket of greenhouse gases.... READ MORE

Greenland 8°C warmer in September

In what would be the start to a series of anomalous temperature spikes in the autumnal shoulder season, the temperature at Greenland's highest point was above freezing on Sept 3--the first time ever recorded in... READ MORE

ARCTIC OCEAN ACIDIFYING 4X FASTER

New research found that rapid melting of sea ice means the Arctic Ocean is particularly vulnerable to acidification.... READ MORE

HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA

Having already knocked out power throughout Cuba, Hurricane Ian is crashing into the western coast of Florida with its disastrous extreme trifecta of storm surges reaching 18 feet, torrential rains unleashing up to 24... READ MORE

COUNTDOWN

CO2 Budget Depletion

Water Insecurity

The map above shows areas with annual precipitation loss under the 1° C above the 1850‐1900 average scenario, which we already passed in 2017. Explore more about the changes in global precipitation distribution under other scenarios presented in Probable Futures’ predictions.

Climate change is having a significant impact on water availability by changing hydrological and meteorological conditions – changes in the water cycle, melting glaciers and ice, unpredictable seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation from the land surface plus transpiration from plants) rates and drying water bodies. Because the Arctic feeds into the global climate system through the albedo effect (the ability of Earth’s surfaces to reflect the sun’s rays back to the atmosphere), a warmer Arctic with less ice and snow will darken the Earth, causing more of the sun’s heat to be absorbed. This, in turn, will fuel extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding and drought – all of which exacerbate water insecurity.

ARCTIC RISK INDICATORS

The following gauges show up-to-date data regarding key indicators in the Arctic. These indicators clearly point to the crisis at hand.

The Arctic (80°N+) Surface Temperature
12 % days
in 2022 are above 90th percentile of 1981-2010
39 days
in 2022 are above 90th percentile of 1981-2010
Worldwide number of disasters
334 disasters
more events in 2021 in comparison to 1970s
252 disasters
more events in 2021 in comparison to 1980s
169 disasters
more events in 2021 in comparison to 1990s
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
1.9 Million km²
below 1981-2010 average on 24-Oct-2022
0.72 Million mi²
below 1981-2010 average on 24-Oct-2022
Arctic Wildfire emissions
12.32 megatonnes CO₂e
CO₂e emissions in 2022 so far
Greenland rate of ice loss
4.5 hundred thousands l/s
on average in 1986-2015
4.5 tons per second
on average in 1986-2015
Arctic Air Quality (PM2.5)
1.38 microgram per cubic meter
on 25-Nov-2022