Extreme heatwave in Siberia

A current extreme heatwave in Siberia is bringing new record temperatures daily. Heat records are being broken... READ MORE

UPDATE Greenland Heatwave

The early warning we issued on May 25th for the first heatwave in #Greenland has occurred on May 31st to June 1st with a temperature anomaly event and high ice melt... READ MORE

NEW – Near Real-time Pan-Arctic Alerts (ARP-PAAS)

The Arctic Risk Platform has a new Pan-Arctic Alert System (PAAS) using operational weather forecasting, satellite and ground observations to deliver updates of a real-time view of unfolding climate extremes. This is... READ MORE

GREENLAND HEATWAVE FORTHCOMING

The first moderate heatwave is forecast for Greenland around June 1,... READ MORE

One of Greenland’s largest glaciers is actively melting from beneath

Below the surface, the Petermann Glacier, one of Greenland's largest, is actively melting--from... READ MORE

COUNTDOWN

CO2 Budget Depletion

Water Insecurity

The map above shows areas with annual precipitation loss under the 1° C above the 1850‐1900 average scenario, which we already passed in 2017. Explore more about the changes in global precipitation distribution under other scenarios presented in Probable Futures’ predictions.

Climate change is having a significant impact on water availability by changing hydrological and meteorological conditions – changes in the water cycle, melting glaciers and ice, unpredictable seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation from the land surface plus transpiration from plants) rates and drying water bodies. Because the Arctic feeds into the global climate system through the albedo effect (the ability of Earth’s surfaces to reflect the sun’s rays back to the atmosphere), a warmer Arctic with less ice and snow will darken the Earth, causing more of the sun’s heat to be absorbed. This, in turn, will fuel extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding and drought – all of which exacerbate water insecurity.

ARCTIC RISK INDICATORS

The following gauges show up-to-date data regarding key indicators in the Arctic. These indicators clearly point to the crisis at hand.

Greenland rate of ice loss
4.5 hundred thousands l/s
on average in 1986-2015
4.5 tons per second
on average in 1986-2015
Worldwide number of disasters
265 disasters
more events in 2022 in comparison to 1970s
183 disasters
more events in 2022 in comparison to 1980s
100 disasters
more events in 2022 in comparison to 1990s
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
605,499 km²
below 1981-2010 average on 04-Jun-2023
233,783 mi²
below 1981-2010 average on 04-Jun-2023
Arctic Amplification
2.82 times
faster than global average in last 30 years
2.57 times
faster than global average in last 50 years
2.54 times
faster than global average in last 70 years
Arctic Wildfire emissions
0.60 megatonnes CO₂e
CO₂e emissions in 2023 so far
Arctic Air Quality (PM2.5)
5.50 microgram per cubic meter
on 05-Jun-2023