A current extreme heatwave in Siberia is bringing new record temperatures daily. Heat records are being broken daily. In some places, like Kurgan, temperatures exceeded 38°C. Above the Arctic Circle, temperatures surpassed 24°C.  

Above-average temperatures in this particular region are worrying because they can lead to further thawing of permafrost, which is the frozen ground that covers a significant portion of Siberia. Permafrost thaw releases large amounts of greenhouse gases, such as methane and carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere, further contributing to the greenhouse effect. By trapping more heat in the atmosphere, these emissions thus amplify global warming, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves in the region and beyond. 

Thawing permafrost can lead to infrastructure damage, causing buildings and roads to crumble as the land gives way underneath. Thus, the loss of permafrost can significantly alter the landscape and affect local communities that rely on the land for agriculture, transportation, and traditional practices. 

We will keep monitoring the forecasts and the live weather station data from Siberia to see how this event unfolds. 

The early warning we issued on May 25th for the first heatwave in #Greenland has occurred on May 31st to June 1st with a temperature anomaly event and high ice melt conditions. Temperatures were expected to reach +15°C (+59°F) above average in the south low-elevation regions of the ice sheet and surface melt and weather station data showed melt at elevations as high as at 7000 feet (2133.6 metres). This heatwave signals the beginning of the Arctic melt season. We will continue to monitor the forecasts and the live weather station data from Greenland to see how this melting period unfolds. 

This heatwave is still relatively early in the season and, as such, is a strong indicator of ongoing climate change and its impacts. Greenland and the Arctic region are highly sensitive to global warming, and these events provide further evidence of the increasing temperatures and changing climate patterns. 

The early onset of the melt season in the Arctic can lead to accelerated ice melt, particularly in Greenland. As temperatures rise, the melting of glaciers and ice sheets can contribute to the overall rise in sea levels. This poses a significant threat to coastal communities around the world, as sea-level rise can lead to increased coastal erosion, flooding, and the displacement of populations. Greenland is currently the largest single contributor to global sea level rise. A 2022 study shows that we have destabilised Greenland’s ice sheet so much that we have irreversibly committed a minimum of 27cm of global sea level rise even with no further emissions.

The Arctic Risk Platform has a new Pan-Arctic Alert System (PAAS) using operational weather forecasting, satellite and ground observations to deliver updates of a real-time view of unfolding climate extremes. This is based on deviations from historical patterns.

For example, above the Arctic Circle, the far north of Canada today has 80 F (27°C). So it’s not just Quebec and Nova Scotia that are feeling unseasonable heat. And a few days earlier, the Greenland melt season started with a heatwave bringing unseasonable melt up to 6500 feet [1981 meters] altitude. These and the coming Arctic Alerts are now being monitored real–time by the Arctic Risk Platform.

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The first heatwave is forecast for Greenland around June 1, 2023. Expected temperature could reach +15°C (+59°F) above average in the south low-elevation regions of the ice sheet. We do not yet know if this will mark the expected start of the 2023 Arctic melt season (Danish Meteorological Institute has not called it yet) or if it will possibly be a repeat of the extreme heatwave resulting in record setting glacial ice melt from September 2022 (see our forecast and melt alert). We will continue to monitor the forecasts and the live weather station data from Greenland to see how this event unfolds.

Image from Karsten Haustein’s NCEP GFS forecast.