LATEST NEWS & ALERTS

A current extreme heatwave in Siberia is bringing new record temperatures daily. Heat records are being broken daily. In some places, like Kurgan, temperatures exceeded 38°C. Above the Arctic Circle, temperatures surpassed 24°C.  

Above-average temperatures in this particular region are worrying because they can lead to further thawing of permafrost, which is the frozen ground that covers a significant portion of Siberia. Permafrost thaw releases large amounts of greenhouse gases, such as methane and carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere, further contributing to the greenhouse effect. By trapping more heat in the atmosphere, these emissions thus amplify global warming, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves in the region and beyond. 

Thawing permafrost can lead to infrastructure damage, causing buildings and roads to crumble as the land gives way underneath. Thus, the loss of permafrost can significantly alter the landscape and affect local communities that rely on the land for agriculture, transportation, and traditional practices. 

We will keep monitoring the forecasts and the live weather station data from Siberia to see how this event unfolds. 

The early warning we issued on May 25th for the first heatwave in #Greenland has occurred on May 31st to June 1st with a temperature anomaly event and high ice melt conditions. Temperatures were expected to reach +15°C (+59°F) above average in the south low-elevation regions of the ice sheet and surface melt and weather station data showed melt at elevations as high as at 7000 feet (2133.6 metres). This heatwave signals the beginning of the Arctic melt season. We will continue to monitor the forecasts and the live weather station data from Greenland to see how this melting period unfolds. 

This heatwave is still relatively early in the season and, as such, is a strong indicator of ongoing climate change and its impacts. Greenland and the Arctic region are highly sensitive to global warming, and these events provide further evidence of the increasing temperatures and changing climate patterns. 

The early onset of the melt season in the Arctic can lead to accelerated ice melt, particularly in Greenland. As temperatures rise, the melting of glaciers and ice sheets can contribute to the overall rise in sea levels. This poses a significant threat to coastal communities around the world, as sea-level rise can lead to increased coastal erosion, flooding, and the displacement of populations. Greenland is currently the largest single contributor to global sea level rise. A 2022 study shows that we have destabilised Greenland’s ice sheet so much that we have irreversibly committed a minimum of 27cm of global sea level rise even with no further emissions.

The Arctic Risk Platform has a new Pan-Arctic Alert System (PAAS) using operational weather forecasting, satellite and ground observations to deliver updates of a real-time view of unfolding climate extremes. This is based on deviations from historical patterns.

For example, above the Arctic Circle, the far north of Canada today has 80 F (27°C). So it’s not just Quebec and Nova Scotia that are feeling unseasonable heat. And a few days earlier, the Greenland melt season started with a heatwave bringing unseasonable melt up to 6500 feet [1981 meters] altitude. These and the coming Arctic Alerts are now being monitored real–time by the Arctic Risk Platform.

Subscribe today to receive our most important updates and alerts based on summer melt season anomalies.

The first heatwave is forecast for Greenland around June 1, 2023. Expected temperature could reach +15°C (+59°F) above average in the south low-elevation regions of the ice sheet. We do not yet know if this will mark the expected start of the 2023 Arctic melt season (Danish Meteorological Institute has not called it yet) or if it will possibly be a repeat of the extreme heatwave resulting in record setting glacial ice melt from September 2022 (see our forecast and melt alert). We will continue to monitor the forecasts and the live weather station data from Greenland to see how this event unfolds.

Image from Karsten Haustein’s NCEP GFS forecast.

Below the surface, the Petermann Glacier, one of Greenland’s largest, is actively melting–from beneath. Researchers at UCI and NASA’s JPL have discovered that the glacier’s grounding line–that is, the point where the glacier leaves its bed of land and extends into the ocean, responds to the tide. Surges in tide force warming water further into the glacier’s base between 2-6km, accelerating its melt rapidly. Consequently, between 2016-2022, the grounding line has retreated 4km inland. This research is significant as it shows that glaciers terminating beneath the ocean surface are not resistant to melting, as previously believed.

Dr Helen Millman, the new WEF Hoffmann Fellow on Polar Issues, highlights some of the catastrophic significance. According to Millman, “Projections of sea level rise from ice sheets could double as study shows that tidal action causes melt rate to increase dramatically. This means that we may be heading for the worst-case scenario for global sea level rise and hundreds of millions of people could be displaced by the end of this century.”

To learn more, check out this article.

Image was captured by NASA’s AQUA satellite in July, 2012.

Scientists expect that the global temperature will rise above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold within the next five years.  

The World Meteorological Organization has indicated that, due to a combination of fossil fuel emissions and an impending El Niño warming event, it is now probable that the global temperature will surpass the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time. It is likely that global temperatures will reach unprecedented highs within the next five years. More specifically, it is highly likely (98%) that at least one in the upcoming five years (2023-2027) will set a heat record. 

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. 

The report also highlights the disproportionate warming temperatures of the Arctic. For example, over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters, the temperature anomaly in the Arctic region is expected to be more than three times greater than the global mean anomaly, relative to the 1991-2020 average. 

The +1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement isn’t just a number. It is a key tipping point, beyond which there will be significant increases in extreme events such as floods, droughts, wildfires, and food shortages. The Earth’s climate system has 16 critical tipping points that govern the safe space for humanity. Out of this total, nine are within the polar regions and five Arctic tipping points are expected to be crossed between +1.5°C to +2°C of warming (Armstrong McKay et al., 2022). This includes almost complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice, increased rate of permafrost degradation leading to increased GHG (i.e. methane) emissions and increased Greenland ice sheet melt leading to global sea level rise. 

The Paris limit is not broken: There is still hope. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is crucial, and we need to do a lot more. It is important that we hold countries accountable for not acting upon the Paris Agreement. We need Climate Action NOW! 

Image: WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Target years: 2022 and 2022-2026

The extreme, yet early season, heatwave that has gripped much of Canada over the past two weeks is showing no signs of abating, and is spreading into Northwestern USA. This heatwave is the result of an abnormally strong high pressure system that is effectively blocking normal atmospheric circulation patterns. Anomalously warm Arctic temperatures are one of the driving factors creating this system. Temperatures in British Columbia, Alberta and the Yukon could rise +18°C above the average highs for this time of year–temperatures usually seen at the peak of the summer in July and August. Heat warnings are also issued for western Washington and Oregon, which are predicted to face similar temperatures.

29,000 people have already been forced to evacuate from wildfires in Alberta, and this furthering heat will bring more challenging fire-fighting conditions. The perpetuating heat, in addition to continued drought, is priming fodder for further fires. In addition to fire, this heat accompanies health risks, especially for young children and older adults, outdoor workers and marginalised communities. Health impacts are magnified by poor air quality as a result of the wildfires–particulate matter of which has now reached across the continent.

Climate Central’s analysis shows this North American heatwave is 5x more likely as a direct result of human emissions.

Many of the extreme heat events we are seeing globally would be virtually impossible without human-driven climate change. Former Arctic Basecamp research fellow, Maja Vahlberg, co-authored a piece published this week finding that the excessive heat throughout the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was also a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.

A significant heatwave is expected throughout much of Canada next week bringing temperatures more than 10°C above normal. This heatwave is notable for several reasons—notably that it is occurring so early in the season and during a year in which we are expecting an El Niño shift.

El Niño periods are associated with global heating, meaning that the planet is likely to see a new highest temperature later this year or in 2024 as El Niño continues to develop. Professor Adam Scaife of the Met Office highlights that climate change is increasing the power of El Niño events: “You put those two things together, and we are likely to see unprecedented heatwaves during the next El Nino.”

Whilst the May heatwave is unlikely to set new national records, it’s a primer for what could be a very hot summer. Extreme heat sets the stage for hospitalisations, wildfires and crop failures. British Columbia is still reeling from the effects of the 2021 Western North American heatwave, which was the deadliest weather event in Canada during which nearly 1,500 people died . Damage to crops led to an increase in food prices globally, and a new national record was set in the small town of Lytton, BC, which saw the mercury climb to 49.6°C (121.3°F). The following day, 90% of the town was decimated in a wildfire that was fuelled by the hot, dry conditions. The town is still in the process of achieving permissions to rebuild.

This record—the highest in any part of the world north of 45°N–was notably set in the midst of La Niña, a period of global cooling.

Image: Climate Reanalyzer, projection for 03 May, 2023

April and May are usually Thailand’s hottest months of the year. Halfway through April, this year is proving to be no exception. On April 15, the Asian country set a new national record of 45.5°C (114°F), surpassing the 44.6°C set at the end of the month in 2016. At 15°N, Thailand is one of a dozen Asian countries currently experiencing their worst spring heatwave in which real-feel temperatures are pushing the limits of human survivability.

Beyond human health, however, this heatwave has implications for all sectors of the regional and global economy with tendrils extending into education, agriculture and food security, heat stress and productivity, and energy use.

After the devastating heatwaves across India and Pakistan last summer, the World Weather Attribution group cited the heatwaves as “a glimpse of the region’s future”. A year later, and this future is solid. Why? Despite global commitments to the contrary, 2022 marked another year of record greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere. These gases insulate the earth and trap solar radiation, leading to global heating. In the Arctic, this effect is amplified by the melting of sea ice, which exposes dark [ocean] surfaces that absorb more radiation. This is at the core of one of the feedback loops driving planetary warming.

Last month saw the second-lowest polar sea ice extent and was also the world’s 2nd warmest month on record (NOAA). March was the 529th straight month with higher-than-normal temperatures (Copernicus), meaning that anyone younger than 44 has never lived in a month below the long-term average.

Meteorological offices throughout the world, in the United States, UK, Australia and Japan, have all indicated the likelihood of an El Niño event this year. El Niño patterns are associated with warmer periods, which could further shatter records and give a pronounced glimpse into the planet’s future. Thailand’s 2016 high temperature record was set during an El Niño period, and 2016 remains the Earth’s warmest year to date.

Are you curious about the global threats, like heat stress, coming from Arctic warming? Find out more – GLOBAL RISKS

Image: © Vyacheslav Argenberg / http://www.vascoplanet.com/, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Today the final synthesis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s 6th Assessment Report cycle was released. This synthesis report restates that it is “now or never” to act, and that we are well on the path to irreversible climate catastrophe.

While 5/6 of the tipping points that will still be crossed even if we stay within the Paris Agreement temperature limits are in the poles, the effects are global. Emissions have continued to grossly rise even as governments around the world make pledges to stay in line with targets agreed back in 2015.

The world is clearly off-track, and this is our Moonshot moment. With the Willow oil drilling project in in the Arctic having been given the go-ahead just last week this report highlights the urgency for positive action.

We have solutions to curb the crisis if we act now. We need policy leaders, decision makers and global executives to stop waiting for someone else and some other time, but to take drastic and urgent action immediately. Want to know what you can do? Check out our solutions page.

A world past 1.5C or even 2C is not a safe world.

Key insights from the report:

• With current policies, Earth temperatures will rise between 2.2 and 3.5 °C
• Lack of action is triggering catastrophic events, which can change the climate “irreversibly”
• ~3.5 billion people are in immediate death danger from climate-related floods, droughts, and storms
• UN Secretary-General Guterres specifically urged:
  – Coal phase-out by 2040
  – NetZero electricity generation by 2035
  – 0 new oil & gas licenses immediately

Read the IPPC’s Synthesis Report HERE.

Arctic sea ice has likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.62 million square kilometres (5.64 million square miles) on March 6, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. The 2023 maximum is the fifth lowest in the 45-year satellite record.

NSIDC scientists stress that the Arctic sea ice extent number is preliminary—continued winter conditions could still push the ice extent higher.

We spoke to our Chief Science Officer, Professor Julienne Stroeve about this year’s maximum and what this might mean for the summer sea ice this year. Watch the video below.

Why is sea ice important? Arctic sea ice is an indicator of climate stability. Today, there is about 40% less sea ice coverage at the end of the melt season than existed in the 1980s. The ice area shrank by almost half the size of the entire European Union. What was left was smaller than at any time in at least 1,000 years. But sea ice loss also worsens warming. White ice cover reflects much of the sun’s energy back out to space. But as ice disappears, the dark ocean is exposed, absorbs more of the sun’s energy, and warms, helping to melt more snow and ice. Estimates suggest that the loss of Arctic sea ice together with reductions in snow cover over the boreal land areas will exacerbate global warming by 25 – 40%. CLICK TO SEE THE DATA.

The NSIDC’s formal announcement will be at the beginning of April with full analysis of the possible causes behind this year’s ice conditions, interesting aspects of the growth season, the set up going into the summer melt season, and graphics comparing this year to the long-term record. Read the NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis page for more details and images.

Tropical cyclone Freddy is set to make more international records–including possibly one for the longest-lasting storm, later this week. Having already decimated more than 1,000 houses in Madagascar, all of this is bad news for Mozambique. According to the most recent data from German Watch, Mozambique is currently #1 amongst countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate disasters.

Having formed off the northern coast of Australia in early February, Freddy has broken an 8,000-km (5,000-mile) path to eastern Africa, bringing with it the highest accumulated cyclone energy of any storm to strike in the southern hemisphere. Not only is Freddy amongst the 5% of SW Indian Ocean cyclones that make landfall in southern Africa, but it is doing so for the second time. Instead of fizzling out over the continent, however, Freddy made a rare 360 back into the Indian Ocean and is now coming at Africa again.

Freddy’s first landfall impacted an estimated 226,000 people in Madagascar and 166,600 in Mozambique, according to ReliefWeb, where more than 28,300 homes were damaged or destroyed. Currently, Save the Children is reporting more than 900,000 people, half of whom are children, are in the path of Freddy’s anticipated track when it makes landfall again on Friday. The storm will come with sustained winds at 160kph and gusts to 190kph, as per Mozambique’s National Institute of Meteorology.

Mozambique is particularly vulnerable due to its low-lying and non-resilient infrastructure, and the reliance on natural resources, which are directly impacted by the worsening climate crisis. Drought, sea level rise, salt water intrusion, floods and rising temperatures are amongst the consequences that are facing the nation and devastating livelihoods and ecosystems.

Mozambique’s position as the most climate vulnerable country in the world is also a huge concern for climate justice. Its global share of emissions is 0.21% with a GDP per capita of 448.84USD, which means that it is being directly impacted by damages from worldwide emissions, the overwhelming majority of which it did not cause. For this reason, not only do we need to cut emissions immediately, but wealthy countries absolutely must come through with international finance pledges to help those like Mozambique justly face the crisis for which they are paying but did not cause.

To learn more about how the Arctic directly impacts vulnerable countries in Africa and around the world, check out https://arcticrisk.org/climate-vulnerable/

Image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Freddy_2023-02-24_1045Z.jpg

We’ve been following a warming spell in Greenland for a while, alerting about its strengthening last week and also touching upon it earlier this week in conjunction with the freeze in northern Europe. It has only gotten worse, and this has significant repercussions for the entire globe.

It’s not even the Arctic melt season and temperatures have already soared more than 50F above normal in some parts of Greenland. The capital, Nuuk, saw temperatures peak at 59.4F (15.2C) last Sunday – far warmer than the city’s average high of 23F (-5C) for this time of year, according to the Danish Meteorological Institute. Temperatures in the northern part of the country, however, are where the even scarier anomalies have appeared – there it has been between 30-50F (17-28C) above what is expected for this time of year.

Why is this occurring?
This warmth is actually related to the same reason that the UK is currently in snow warnings! What is occurring is a phenomenon commonly known as a ‘Greenland block’, an area of high pressure that hangs over Greenland and causes the air below it to warm. This block is the result of an earlier disruption to the polar vortex, known as a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW). This same SSW that is leading to flip-flop weather in Greenland is causing parka weather in the UK.

So what does this mean for the summer melt season? For the climate crisis?
Not only are shoulder-season warming events indicative of the worsening climate crisis, but such pre-season warming can “precondition for earlier melts [because] if the temperature of the existing snow is higher than it would otherwise be, there is less heat required to bring it to the melting point” according to Arctic Basecamp Scientist and Greenland specialist, Jason Box. Although not on scale with a mid-season melt, it is the largest melt episode for this time of year in more than 20 years.

A strong winter snowpack is one of the best precautions against summer melt on the island that is currently the largest contributor to global sea level rise. As its snow and ice melt, its ability to reflect incoming solar radiation is reduced, thereby more heat is absorbed and ultimately trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere. Even if all emissions were to cease immediately, Greenland is still expected to lose 3% of its mass, leading to a global average of 27cm (10”) of sea level rise.

We’re rapidly approaching the sea ice maximum for the Arctic Ocean, and yet, it’s almost possible to kayak around Svalbard?

With the warming Arctic, we no longer have the degree of sea ice here. At the beginning of the month, sea ice around Svalbard is 270,192 sq km, or 117,691 sq km below the 1991-2020 average.

When the ice is thin and weak, wave action and winds further can prevent it from consolidating into the fast/pack ice that traditionally envelops the archipelago. According to Norwegian Meteorological Institute (sat data from Copernicus), the recent prevailing winds have been southerlies, but they are swinging around, which may help the drift ice strengthen–either way, at a time when Arctic ice should be at its strongest, it’s consequentially absent.

This is coming at the same time as the climate crisis is holding tight onto the other pole. Two weeks ago, Antarctica hit its lowest recorded sea ice extent.

Check out our page on global risks to get a good idea about how climate change in the polar regions spells disaster for the entire world: https://arcticrisk.org/global-risks/

Image source: Norwegian Meteorological Institute

The climate crisis is usually associated with overall planetary warming, but in some areas climate disruption brings abnormal colds. If you’re in the UK, there’s a good chance you’ve been pulling out that winter coat and possibly shovelling a bit of snow!

The coldest temperature in the UK this year was -10.4°C in Drumnadrochit (on the western shore of Loch Ness in the Scottish Highlands) on January 19. That number, however, is expected to be obliterated as temperatures may hit -15°C tonight. This is about six degrees colder than last March, when the mercury bottomed out at -9.1°C in Aboyne, Aberdeenshire.

Maybe you remember Anticyclone Hartmut in 2018, more familiarly known as the “Beast from the East”? Although the Beast from the East event was the confluence of storms, the initial event was the same type of polar disruption currently over the UK. Normally centred over the poles when strong, polar vortices are large counter-clockwise flows of low pressure. This vortex can be weakened by events such as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), during which the temperature in the stratosphere can warm up to 50°C after the slowing and/or reversal of winds in the stratospheric polar vortex. In this current case, the SSW was triggered following a large high-pressure blocking event over Greenland. This system disrupts the polar vortex, causing the frigid polar air to spill south, in this case, unleashing an Arctic blast south over the United Kingdom and continental Europe.

Disruptions to the polar vortex have been happening more frequently and with greater intensity in recent years, in part due to the greater climate crisis. Two of the main contributors include the moderation of the temperature differential as the Arctic warms exponentially. This polar warming is associated with a weaker vortex that is more prone to disruption, and thus, southerly dips. Similarly, the warming Arctic is also associated with a less stable jet stream, which gives rise to more extreme weather.

The Met Office warns that the polar air and potential icy conditions will continue through the weekend and are likely to cause various degrees of travel chaos and uncertainty, as well as electrical outages that could isolate more rural communities. Keep some food, water and warm kit in your car if you need to head out on the road in the event of travel disruptions!

Do you need a place to stay? Find a spot near you at https://www.warmwelcome.uk. With the cost of heating being up 96% compared with last year, a warm place to live is beyond the reach of an increasing number of Britons. Luckily, there are more than 4000 warm banks around the country where you can have a warm place to stay without any cost–and some with wifi and food available (sometimes at a cost). Worried about a four-legged friend in this cold spell? The RSPCA is full of tips to keep your feathered and furry friends safe!

Image: www.severe-weather.eu

Trees: many of us plant them as a way of engaging in climate action; others purchase carbon ‘offsets’ in the form of protected forested areas. Whatever your relation to them, trees are a widespread symbol of a healthy planet. What happens, however, when they burn and release all the stored carbon that makes them such great carbon sinks?

Satellite images have shown that wildfires in boreal forests, those at high latitudes, have increased significantly over the past two decades. Wildfires in these regions have typically comprised 10% of the planet’s terrain fires, but in 2021 the number skyrocketed to 23%. Worryingly, these northern forests are also 10-20 times more carbon-dense than other ecosystems, This increase is largely kindled by other aspects of the climate crisis, including drought and heat waves that are ravaging the northern regions and priming conditions to burn. And burn they do. According to Steven Davis, a professor of earth sciences at UC Irvine, “Boreal forests could be a time bomb of carbon.”

With record emissions pumped into the atmosphere in 2022 despite pledges to the contrary and record temperatures this winter throughout much of the Arctic, this coming fire season is one to watch.

Check arcticrisk.org to understand how the northern regions are so sensitive to warming, and also why the rest of the world pays the price for Arctic fires. To know what you can do to change a future of these carbon time bombs, look at https://arcticrisk.org/solutions/

We may still have several weeks of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, but the extended shoulder season warming that led to significant melt spikes and temperature anomalies in Greenland last year is already returning–and early.

Longer shoulder seasons in which unseasonable temperatures and melt events can occur are hallmarks of the worsening climate crisis. Although current temperature anomalies are most extreme over the Greenland ice sheet, the entire Arctic is currently 3.74°C warmer than the 1979–2000 average.

Authors of a recent article in Nature (Hörhold et al 2023) recently confirmed through ice cores that temperatures in central-north Greenland are greater than at any point in the last millennium.

What does this mean for the summer melt season? We’ll be tracking how this season develops at arcticrisk.org/alerts/

Image: Karsten Haustein, karstenhaustein.com

As a whole, the Arctic is warming 4x faster than the rest of the planet, but this warming isn’t uniform, some areas are warming faster. Warmth has been focussed around the Barents Sea region including Svalbard. Svalbard, for example, is approximately 7x faster. Svalbard’s main town, Longyearbyen, may even be the fastest warming city in the world right now (Norwegian Polar Institute), with this past year extending that trajectory.

The average temperature last summer was 7.4°C, up from the 5.5°C average from 1991-2020. In November, temperatures in the northern archipelago at times exceeded those in Norway’s capital, Oslo. In 2015, an avalanche hit Longyearbyen, leading to the islands’ first two deaths attributed to the climate change.

Today, the town remains on edge with some residents feeling unsafe in their homes—not because of the region’s infamous polar bears but from climate events that have spun beyond control (personal interviews).

Around Svalbard, and throughout the Arctic, we are rapidly losing sea ice. In the past 40 years, summer sea ice has lost 75% of its volume. This loss of sea ice though doesn’t just impact Svalbard or even the Arctic. By the end of this century, the loss of summer sea ice associated with just a 3°C warming is expected to contribute to US$70trillion in global disasters around the world.

To understand how this fragile region is the world’s control centre, check out the Global Risks page.

Data: climate.copernicus.eu

Visual: Zachary Labe @ZLabe (Twitter)

UN Secretary General, António Guterres, is again not mincing words when he spoke about the ‘torrent of trouble’ facing a billion people that could yield ‘a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale’ when he addressed the UN Security Council this week.

Our failures to act on the climate crisis have triggered a trajectory of sea level rise that is greater than anything in several thousand years. This rise has already rendered places uninhabitable and more low-lying regions are being consumed for good. We’re already seeing conflicts over increasingly scarce resources, and tensions over migrations. It’s not just about losing land and fresh water, though. It affects everything we know. Just looking at the social implications, Prof Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary General concludes that “sea level rise imposes risks to economies, livelihoods, settlements, health, wellbeing, food and water security and cultural values in the near to long term.”

While the Pacific islands might be the first thing that comes to mind when pondering sea level rise, the Arctic is the key driver. Did you know that Greenland is currently the largest contributor to global sea level rise and contains the potential of 7.4m (>24 feet) of rise? Antarctica is the proverbial sleeping giant, starting to wake. Research published in Nature by Arctic Basecamp scientists highlights the destabilization of Greenland caused through the continued pumping of emissions into our atmosphere that has committed a minimum average of 27cm of heightened water levels.

We have the power for this not to be our future. We must cut emissions urgently. Beyond emissions, however, we need to look at the SDGs. Did you know that the Arctic’s global climate influence means it is pivotal to achieving the SDGs? Gender, poverty, education, food security, they are all key to surviving the Incoming Tide.

Check out Arcticrisk.org to understand how these all link up! Especially our new work on climate vulnerable countries and SDGs.

Image credit: Wikimedia

Although Cyclone Gabrielle is just making landfall in New Zealand’s North Island, one-third of the country’s population is already under a state of emergency by this once-in-a-century storm. The impacts of this storm will peak tonight aligning with the midnight high tide.

In January, this region was hit by what is considered the ‘biggest climate event’ in New Zealand’s history, as per the Guardian. New Zealand’s new Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, has warned that ‘Extreme weather event has come on the back of extreme weather event,’ magnifying the impacts.

In addition to the high tide, New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research warns that this storm will be a ‘record’ storm surge of 0.7m on top of waves reaching 12m. ‘Red’ warnings from MetService have also hit a record with winds topping 150-160km.

But New Zealand, a polar country? Not geographically, but is it becoming so environmentally? A southern hemisphere country, New Zealand is far from the Arctic–but the presence of the northern pole is still felt in the land of the Silver Fern. Warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, the Arctic is a driving force for warming globally. The current New Zealand summer has brought unusually warm waters, which fuel more powerful cyclones. Part of this warming also stems from La Niña, the increasing effects of which are a concern with Antarctic heating.

So what? Although several factors are in play, what is important to note is that the stability (and instability!) of the polar regions affects the entire planet. A warming Arctic is a warning to all. These storms are going to become norms rather than records as polar impacts heighten global risk unless emissions drop radically and immediately.

Photo by Brett Phibbs for the NZ Herald

Air temperature in the Arctic was -20.89°C on 2023-01-05. This is 0.42°C higher than 90th percentile of climatology period 1981-2010.

Europe is already in the wrath of an Arctic blast, but a “meteorological hammer” is about to drop on the USA as well, gripping all but the westernmost regions in days or weeks of below-normal temperatures, supercell thunderstorms, blizzards and nor’easters.

All this extreme winter weather is because the jet stream is in an extremely amplified pattern, with huge swings north and south. Those southerly kinks allow Arctic air to plunge far southward, fueling storms that feed on temperature contrasts and bringing snow to wide swaths of land areas. These amplified jet-stream patterns are expected to occur more often as the Arctic warms much faster than elsewhere, and Mother Nature seems to be on board.

If you’re in the USA and need a warm place to stay, text SHELTER and your ZIP code to 43362.

The Arctic doesn’t just spell cold for the Northern Hemisphere but amplifies risks around the world. For more information on global risks from Arctic warming look HERE.

The most northern town in Alaska, Utqiaġvik (71°N) reached 40°F/4.5°C on Monday, more than 37°F above the average high temperature for this time of year. Monday’s temperature not only surpassed the previous #December record (34°F) set in 1932 but also exceeded the temp on any date from October 30-April 22 since 1920.

This extreme weather is the result of several conflating factors that are directly related to the rapidly warming northern regions. The volume of sea ice in the #Arctic has reduced by 75% since the 1980s, leading in part to the amplification of Arctic warming. This week’s high is also the result of a strong storm that rapidly compressed southerly winds causing 2m temperatures to skyrocket from 25°F to 40°F in 30 minutes.

This December record is now the fifth all-time record in five separate months since 2015.

This weather has global impacts. To understand these wide-reaching consequences, explore the Arctic Risk Platform.

To check current conditions in Utqiaġvik, visit the NOAA meteorological station website.

Temperatures in Europe have increased at more than twice the global average over the past 30 years – the highest of any continent in the world. This rapid warming contributes to exceptional heat, wildfires, floods and other climate change impacts that affect society, economies and ecosystems, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The State of the Climate in Europe report states, “Temperatures over Europe have warmed significantly over the 1991-2021 period, at an average rate of about +0.5 °C per decade. As a result, Alpine glaciers lost 30 meters in ice thickness from 1997 to 2021. The Greenland ice sheet is melting and contributing to accelerating sea level rise.  In summer 2021, Greenland saw a melt event and the first-ever recorded rainfall at its highest point, Summit station.”

The report continues “In 2021, high impact weather and climate events led to hundreds of fatalities, directly affected more than half a million people and caused economic damages exceeding US$ 50 billion. About 84% of the events were floods or storms.”

Whilst the EU has cut greenhouse gas emissions by 31% between 1990 and 2020 this does not protect them from the affects of climate change. Specifically rapid Arctic warming amplifies global risks around the planet.

Climate vulnerability discussions often focus on unpreparedness and nations who struggle to fund adaptation and mitigation measures, but this report highlights that even the most prepared regions cannot escape the effects of a rapidly warming planet:

“Europe is also one of the most advanced regions in cross-border cooperation in climate change adaptation, in particular across transnational river basins. It is one of the world leaders in providing effective early warning systems, with about 75% of people protected. Heat-health action plans have saved many lives from extreme heat.

Read more about the global risks from rapid Arctic warming HERE.

For more information on this story visit the BBC.

06.10.2022, Greenland. In what would be the start to a series of anomalous temperature spikes in the autumnal shoulder season, the temperature at Greenland’s highest point was above freezing on Sept 3–the first time ever recorded in September. At this time, more than one-third of Greenland’s ice sheet (~600,000 square kilometers) was in melt and meltwater runoff peaked at 12bn tons per day. New data from Copernicus now shows that temperature anomalies in Greenland exceeded 8°C for the entire month of September (based on 1981-2010 data). This is significant because–even in an otherwise relatively ‘normal’ year for melt–we are seeing notable warming spells extend well into the post-season, indicative of how Arctic warming is strengthening and prolonging melting periods that will have global consequences, such as increased sea level rise. This follows on the heels of a paper by two Arctic Basecamp scientists, Drs Jason Box and Alun Hubbard, which highlights a committed 27cm of sea level rise from Greenland’s meltwater even if all emissions were cut immediately.

30.09.2022, Arctic Ocean. In August, it was confirmed that the Arctic is warming 4x faster than the planetary average. Yesterday researchers from China and the US established that the Arctic Ocean is also acidifying 4x faster than other oceans.

The rapid melting of sea ice means the Arctic Ocean is particularly vulnerable to acidification. Normally, the alkalinity of the ocean offers some protection, but melting ice is diluting this buffer and causing the Arctic Ocean to acidify rapidly.

Our addiction to fossil fuels means that the ocean covering 71% of Earth’s surface is no longer a stabilising force for the environment but is becoming an acid bath. Some of the effects of this acidity are well known–for example, it reduces carbonate ions that form coral skeletons or oyster shells. However, some effects are not yet fully understood but are expected to have toxic impacts–not just on marine life but on humans and entire planetary systems.

Our planet is screaming in every way it can that we cannot continue to burn fossil fuels.

To learn more about how the Arctic is at the epicenter of many of these global phenomena, head HERE for more information on the global risks from Arctic change.

Read the full study in Science HERE.

Read the Guardian article HERE.

28.09.2022, Florida. Having already knocked out power throughout Cuba, Hurricane Ian is crashing into the western coast of Florida with its disastrous extreme trifecta of storm surges reaching 18 feet, torrential rains unleashing up to 24 inches, and winds just 1-2mph shy of being a Category 5 storm with gusts to 190mph.

Each of these extremes is life-threatening in itself but is catastrophic when together, especially when it has experienced “rapid intensification,” and residents are not able to adequately prepare. The gravity of this storm is the direct result of climate change. Normally, storms ease as they barrel toward the US coast, but Ian was able to strengthen from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane within 3 days due to the excessively warm water temperatures that power the storm. This process has been occurring more frequently in recent decades as the water continues to bake. Warmer air is also able to hold more moisture, contributing to more powerful cyclones.

Additionally, as this part of the world is vulnerable to sea level rise, which amplifies the effects of flooding and storm surges. As Greenland melt is the world’s largest contributor to sea level rise, and Arctic amplification is forcing temperatures to rise world over, mitigating change in the Arctic is paramount to controlling future catastrophes around the world. To understand how climate change in the Arctic drives global risks and shares significant responsibility in disasters like Ian, see https://arcticrisk.org

Click HERE for more information on the global risks from Arctic change.

27.09.2022, Greenland. Like in 2021, the Greenland melt season has been extended by new extremes of heat. The exceptional heat episode during the first week of September 2022, that brought melting over more than a third of the ice sheet, when it’s normally hardly melting, has darkened Greenland snow and ice. This effect is sustaining melt conditions even after the heatwave passes through the so-called albedo feedback.

Click HERE for more information on the global risks from Arctic change.

Read a related ARTICLE by Arctic Basecamp Science Team member Prof. Jason Box

23.09.2022, Alaska. Heat spells this year have filled the news with drying lakes and rivers. In Alaska, however, heat is meaning that new lakes are being born. This is not the only anomaly between these new thermokarst lakes and others around the world. Thermokarst lakes are the result of thawing permafrost that collapses in on itself. Microbes in the thawing permafrost digest organic matter, releasing greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide. When released, these gases make their way through the more permeable ground and then bubble up through the water. The result? Belching lakes!

Click HERE for more information on the global risks from Arctic change.

Read the ARTICLE

Fiona, Merbok, Nanmadol — OH MY!! Three climate-crisis-fuelled tropical storms have wreaked havoc this week, continuing a summer of record-smashing extreme weather events. These three storms have already racked up billions of dollars in damages and ruined thousands of lives, and they aren’t done yet. While all three were born in the tropics, their destruction has also affected or will affect high-latitude areas not accustomed to receiving many inches of rain over a matter of hours. A warmer Earth along with a moister atmosphere — thanks to a thicker blanket of greenhouse gases and vicious cycles involving the loss of Arctic ice and snow — make these storms juicier, more powerful, and allow them to stay strong as they head northward. Higher sea levels, also accelerated by a warming Arctic, expand the reach of storm surges. If we do nothing to curtail the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, expect to see more of these monster storms.

Click HERE for more information on the global risks from Arctic change.

Read the ARTICLE

As anticipated last week the forecast Greenland melt anomaly has occurred – just look at that spike!

See below for more information on the alert and HERE for more the latest data on Greenland.

Click HERE for more information on global risks.

Although Arctic temperatures usually start to cool down towards Autumn, unusually warm temperatures for this time of the year are currently forecasted for Greenland. Expected temperature could reach +15C (+59 F) above average in the central high-elevation regions of the ice sheet. According to regional climate model forecasts, these unusually warm temperatures may result in significant melt and could be accompanied by significant precipitation. If this precipitation falls as rain, it will further enhance the melt. Greenland ice sheet mass loss is expected at least through September 5, with peak melt on or around September 3.

We now know that Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise is significantly greater than models have forecasted and is primed for catastrophic coastal flooding for more than a billion people around the world–the vast majority of whom are unprepared. “It’s an understatement that the societal stakes are high and the risk is very real going forward,” glaciologist Alun Hubbard notes. Hubbard, along with lead author Jason Box, are esteemed members of our Arctic Basecamp Science Team.

This breaking research of Box, Hubbard et al shows that Greenland’s ice sheet is being dismantled both internally and externally by a variety of simultaneous processes. The two decades of direct measurements that comprise this study enable precision calculation of the ice sheet’s future in ways we have yet not previously understood.

Read full study @ Nature.com

NEWS JUST IN! The Arctic IS warming faster than we thought. In fact FOUR times as fast as the global average. A report published today in the scientific journal, Nature, states that between 1979 and 2021, the Arctic has warmed an average of 4 times the global average, which has generally not been captured in model datasets, usually showing only 2-3 times warming. This increased rate, reaching 7 times faster in some regions in the Barents region and well known to be a result of Arctic amplification, has been picked up through several observational datasets. Critically, the heightened pattern of the last 43 years indicates that the models traditionally used to calculate the climate around the world are unable to account for the full effects of Arctic amplification and underestimate the changes happening in this critical part of the world. Arctic change has ramifications far beyond the Arctic Circle and the effects can be felt around the globe. 

Read the full article on Nature.com

Source: Extreme Temperatures Around the World on Twitter.

Heat Wave: 29 July was another record hot day in Siberia. The village of Segen Kyuel at lat 64N jumped to 36.1C its hottest day on records. Very hot also in other famous winter cold spots: Curapca (62N) 36.3C,Batamaj (63N) 35.7C and Yakutsk (62N) 35.0C.

Alterations in the jet stream can create persistent and intense heat domes. One such heat dome over Siberia has triggered record temperatures throughout the territory. Not only are residents dealing with the effects of heat stress, but the heat accelerates thawing permafrost, which leads to outbursts of methane gas and billions of dollars of infrastructure devastation.

Read about the global risks from Arctic change HERE.

Source: Xavier Fettweis on Twitter

Svalbard is experiencing unparalleled ice loss with this summer’s cumulative melt being twice previous records. This is, in part, due to a temperature anomaly of +5°C (average from 1 June), contributing to the warmest summer ever in the archipelago in an area already melting 5-7x faster than the planetary average (citation from Norwegian Meterological Office).

Read about the global risks from Arctic change HERE.

Numerous large-scale wildfires have been burning in Alaska since the beginning of June. Some of these fires have been inside the Arctic Circle. The impacts of the fires have been to significantly degrade air quality across the state and some thick smoke plumes have been observed crossing the Beaufort Sea and Arctic Ocean as far as northern Greenland.

Warming Arctic temperatures, associated both with early snowmelt, increased vegetation, drought and also increased vapour in the atmosphere associated with increased lightning storms, have primed Alaska for an exceptional fire season, which so far is on track to surpass the record 2004 season that saw 6.5m acres burned. Adding fuel to the fire is that brown carbon from the wildfires drifts toward the polar regions, where it accelerates Arctic warming.

This article from The Guardian tells you more about the impact on the region.

Read about the global risks from Arctic change HERE.

Inuvik, NWT (68.3°N) exceeded 30°C three days in a row for the first time on record.

Another week, another parade of simultaneous heatwaves around the Northern Hemisphere, and the normally chilly Arctic is not immune. Much-above-normal temperatures are roasting eastern Scandinavia/western Siberia, far northeastern Asia, and northwestern North America. The Arctic is warming at least 3 times faster than the globe as a whole, fueling tundra fires, speeding the melt of land ice and sea-level rise, and accelerating the thaw of once permanently frozen Arctic soils. Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, due mainly to burning fossil fuels, is the underlying disease causing these symptoms. We have the tools and power to slow this change, but what we lack is time. Actions must be swift and substantial to avert a worsening epidemic of extreme weather events.

Find out more from Scott Duncan and Zack Labe on Twitter.

What are the risks? Find out HERE.

Norway’s Meteorological Institute has warned the high temperatures are a clear signal of climate change. Average temperatures in Banak, in Norway, for June typically stand at 13C (55F), currently above 30C (86F).

This article from Sky News highlights the extremes of weather experienced globally in June 2022.

Rapid warming and sea-ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas area are an unmistakable consequence of increasing greenhouse gases. The monumental changes in this region will have devastating impacts on local marine life and humans, and may also be causing more frequent disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex. When the vortex becomes disrupted, a variety of extreme weather events are observed around the Northern Hemisphere. While the research on this complex linkage is still unfolding, remarkable changes such as this should ring everyone’s alarm bells.

Read more in The Guardian