The first heatwave is forecast for Greenland around June 1, 2023. Expected temperature could reach +15°C (+59°F) above average in the south low-elevation regions of the ice sheet. We do not yet know if this will mark the expected start of the 2023 Arctic melt season (Danish Meteorological Institute has not called it yet) or if it will possibly be a repeat of the extreme heatwave resulting in record setting glacial ice melt from September 2022 (see our forecast and melt alert). We will continue to monitor the forecasts and the live weather station data from Greenland to see how this event unfolds.

Image from Karsten Haustein’s NCEP GFS forecast.

Below the surface, the Petermann Glacier, one of Greenland’s largest, is actively melting–from beneath. Researchers at UCI and NASA’s JPL have discovered that the glacier’s grounding line–that is, the point where the glacier leaves its bed of land and extends into the ocean, responds to the tide. Surges in tide force warming water further into the glacier’s base between 2-6km, accelerating its melt rapidly. Consequently, between 2016-2022, the grounding line has retreated 4km inland. This research is significant as it shows that glaciers terminating beneath the ocean surface are not resistant to melting, as previously believed.

Dr Helen Millman, the new WEF Hoffmann Fellow on Polar Issues, highlights some of the catastrophic significance. According to Millman, “Projections of sea level rise from ice sheets could double as study shows that tidal action causes melt rate to increase dramatically. This means that we may be heading for the worst-case scenario for global sea level rise and hundreds of millions of people could be displaced by the end of this century.”

To learn more, check out this article.

Image was captured by NASA’s AQUA satellite in July, 2012.

Scientists expect that the global temperature will rise above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold within the next five years.  

The World Meteorological Organization has indicated that, due to a combination of fossil fuel emissions and an impending El Niño warming event, it is now probable that the global temperature will surpass the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time. It is likely that global temperatures will reach unprecedented highs within the next five years. More specifically, it is highly likely (98%) that at least one in the upcoming five years (2023-2027) will set a heat record. 

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. 

The report also highlights the disproportionate warming temperatures of the Arctic. For example, over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters, the temperature anomaly in the Arctic region is expected to be more than three times greater than the global mean anomaly, relative to the 1991-2020 average. 

The +1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement isn’t just a number. It is a key tipping point, beyond which there will be significant increases in extreme events such as floods, droughts, wildfires, and food shortages. The Earth’s climate system has 16 critical tipping points that govern the safe space for humanity. Out of this total, nine are within the polar regions and five Arctic tipping points are expected to be crossed between +1.5°C to +2°C of warming (Armstrong McKay et al., 2022). This includes almost complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice, increased rate of permafrost degradation leading to increased GHG (i.e. methane) emissions and increased Greenland ice sheet melt leading to global sea level rise. 

The Paris limit is not broken: There is still hope. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is crucial, and we need to do a lot more. It is important that we hold countries accountable for not acting upon the Paris Agreement. We need Climate Action NOW! 

Image: WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Target years: 2022 and 2022-2026

The extreme, yet early season, heatwave that has gripped much of Canada over the past two weeks is showing no signs of abating, and is spreading into Northwestern USA. This heatwave is the result of an abnormally strong high pressure system that is effectively blocking normal atmospheric circulation patterns. Anomalously warm Arctic temperatures are one of the driving factors creating this system. Temperatures in British Columbia, Alberta and the Yukon could rise +18°C above the average highs for this time of year–temperatures usually seen at the peak of the summer in July and August. Heat warnings are also issued for western Washington and Oregon, which are predicted to face similar temperatures.

29,000 people have already been forced to evacuate from wildfires in Alberta, and this furthering heat will bring more challenging fire-fighting conditions. The perpetuating heat, in addition to continued drought, is priming fodder for further fires. In addition to fire, this heat accompanies health risks, especially for young children and older adults, outdoor workers and marginalised communities. Health impacts are magnified by poor air quality as a result of the wildfires–particulate matter of which has now reached across the continent.

Climate Central’s analysis shows this North American heatwave is 5x more likely as a direct result of human emissions.

Many of the extreme heat events we are seeing globally would be virtually impossible without human-driven climate change. Former Arctic Basecamp research fellow, Maja Vahlberg, co-authored a piece published this week finding that the excessive heat throughout the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was also a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.