Global temperatures have slightly decreased after a  summer with 36 consecutive days above any previous record, a phenomenon not seen in at least 125,000 years. However, the two consecutive months above 1.5C provided a glimpse into future warming  that will soon be commonplace if we do not cut emissions urgently. The Paris Accords were designed to safeguard the conditions for human survival—that is, to keep us within life-sustaining planetary boundaries, including the key warming threshold of 1.5C above preindustrial levels.  

However, just two months above +1.5C has unleashed a cascade of global disasters, highlighting that even the widely accepted limit set in the Paris Agreement is not a universally safe space for hundreds of millions of people around the world.  

In early September, Storm Daniel struck Libya, triggering the deadliest flooding event in Africa since 1900. According to the WHO, 3,958 people are confirmed dead with as many as 9,000 still missing. The torrential rains that struck Libya were only one facet of the deadly impact of the climate crisis  and highlight the cascading consequences of extreme weather. A year’s worth of rain within 24 hours caused two already weakened dams to collapse, precipitating the flooding. The country’s low-lying coast makes it vulnerable to flooding, but its weak infrastructure and fragmented disaster preparation and response systems heighten community risk.  

Libya is just one area in the world that saw catastrophic flooding recently. Ten regions saw devastating flooding in just 12 days. Before hitting Libya, Storm Daniel became one of the strongest systems to touch down in Greece, according to Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Streets turned into rivers; cars were washed into the sea. Nearby, people died in flooding in Türkiye, Bulgaria and Spain. In Asia, typhoons Haikui and Saola washed through southern China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, flooding metro systems and trapping drivers in their vehicles.  

In the United States, a hyperactive Atlantic cyclone season and jet stream blocks have brought flooding to parts of the East Coast, including New England and New York. In the west, Nevada’s Burning Man festival was turned into a giant mud pit. In South America, flooding in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul earlier in September was the state’s worst natural disaster in 40 years.  

These global parallels are not random. We know that for each degree (centigrade) that the atmosphere warms, it can hold seven percent more moisture. We know that unprecedented ocean temperatures are driving storms. Many of these global weather patterns are influenced by the warming Arctic, which can alter precipitation and jet stream patterns. Like the flooding in Libya, which swept so many people away whilst asleep, those who bear the brunt of the climate crisis have often contributed the least to the global emissions responsible for it. Learn more about how global risks are associated with Arctic climate change here. 

The Arctic Ocean will soon be ice-free during the summers, even with significant cuts in global carbon emissions. There are major implications that arise from this: amplification of global warming by 25-40%; increase in climate-related disasters worldwide – especially in climate vulnerable regions; increase in risks to local wildlife and Indigenous communities; and rise in shipping-related environmental risks.

This week, the Polar Tipping Points Hub was launched in the Global Collaboration Village, a metaverse built by the World Economic Forum in partnership with Accenture and Microsoft, with scientific support from Arctic Basecamp. The Hub aims to help drive leaders to take collective urgent action in the real world.  

Read more on how metaverse technology is catalysing action on polar ice tipping points and/or see the promo VIDEO.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) launched the Polar Tipping Points Hub, a groundbreaking virtual reality experience in collaboration with Accenture and Microsoft, yesterday at UN Climate Week in New York City. Arctic Basecamp played a crucial scientific role to make this hub come to life. Their team of Arctic experts and scientists have provided valuable scientific data and insights that have been instrumental in the development of the hub and used to guide people through the experience. Additionally, a substantial number of data visualisations from the Arctic Risk Platform (that curates the latest data and science to show how the world is affected by climatological changes in the Arctic) have been incorporated into this immersive experience. 

Read more – WEF Press Release

“Almost mind-blowing.” That’s how Walter Meier of the NSIDC describes the records Antarctica has set this year. By mid-September, the sea ice around the southern pole should be reaching its maximum extent. So far, however, the seventh continent is missing 1.5 million sq km of sea ice compared with the average for this time of year, a number well below any previous record. To put this in perspective, an area the size of Mongolia has effectively failed to freeze.  

Antarctica’s vast size means that it is critical for the temperature regulation of the entire planet. The white snow and ice reflect the sunlight back into space, and the ice cools the water beneath it. It is, thus, like a giant refrigerator for the planet. Its size has also meant that, for many years, Antarctica was assumed to have some natural resistance to melting. Indeed, until 2016, the continent’s winter sea ice had been steadily gaining ice mass.  

Three of the past seven Antarctic summers have seen record-breaking minima. In March 2022, when ice should have been refreezing, eastern Antarctica was pummelled by a heatwave that drove temperatures 40C above normal. Rather than being the planet’s largest refrigerator, a melting Antarctica could become a radiator, as it could absorb heat through exposed ocean rather than repel it.  

Reflecting on the heatwave of March 2022, Professor Martin Siegert of the University of Exeter emphasises the assumed immunity of the ice continent: “When I started studying the Antarctic 30 years ago, we never thought extreme weather events could happen there.” 

While the relative lack of data makes it hard to know exactly what is happening with Antarctica long-term, Professor Anna Hogg at the University of Leeds says that the current trends are highlighting that the worst-case scenario for Antarctica might be ravelling. Professor Siegert asks whether [we are] “awakening this giant of Antarctica.” If so, it would be “an absolute disaster for the world.”  

Land ice from Antarctica has contributed 7.2mm of sea level rise since 1990, placing it behind Greenland in terms of global contribution. However, even a small increase in melt would escalate storm surges and saltwater intrusion, and thus would be devasting for millions of people around the world, especially those in coastal and low-lying communities.

Image source: Amanderson2, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons