The World Above 1.5°C: Flooding Disasters from Libya to Hong Kong

Global temperatures have slightly decreased after a  summer with 36 consecutive days above any previous record, a phenomenon not seen in at least 125,000 years. However, the two consecutive months above 1.5C provided a... READ MORE

Polar Tipping Points Hub in WEF Global Collaboration Village

This week, the Polar Tipping Points Hub was launched in the Global Collaboration Village, a metaverse built by the World Economic Forum in partnership with Accenture and Microsoft, with scientific support from Arctic... READ MORE

Arctic Basecamp Plays Significant Role in New Polar Metaverse by World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum (WEF) launched the Polar Tipping Points Hub, a groundbreaking virtual reality experience in collaboration with Accenture and Microsoft, yesterday at UN Climate Week in New York... READ MORE

Mind-blowing alarm bells need to be ringing: Antarctica’s ice remains well-below any previous record

“Almost mind-blowing.” That’s how Walter Meier of the NSIDC describes the records Antarctica has set this year.... READ MORE

A rare northern hurricane continues to make records

Hurricane Lee is preparing to slam into northern New England and the Canadian... READ MORE


CO2 Budget Depletion

Water Insecurity

The map above shows areas with annual precipitation loss under the 1° C above the 1850‐1900 average scenario, which we already passed in 2017. Explore more about the changes in global precipitation distribution under other scenarios presented in Probable Futures’ predictions.

Climate change is having a significant impact on water availability by changing hydrological and meteorological conditions – changes in the water cycle, melting glaciers and ice, unpredictable precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation from the land surface plus transpiration from plants), and drying water bodies. Because the Arctic feeds into the global climate system through the albedo effect (the ability of Earth’s surfaces to reflect the sun’s rays back to the atmosphere), a warmer Arctic with less ice and snow will darken the Earth, causing more of the sun’s heat to be absorbed. This, in turn, will fuel extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding and drought – all of which disrupt the water cycle and exacerbate water insecurity.

Find out more about how the Arctic affects Global Risks.


The following gauges show up-to-date data regarding key indicators in the Arctic. These indicators clearly point to the crisis at hand.

Greenland rate of ice loss
13 million l/s
on average
13 million tonnes/s
on average
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
2,161,499 km²
below 1981-2010 average on 20-Sep-2023
834,555 mi²
below 1981-2010 average on 20-Sep-2023
Arctic Amplification
4 times
faster than global average
Arctic 66N+ Wildfire emissions
24,864.17 megatonnes CO₂e
CO₂e emissions in 2023 so far
Arctic Air Quality (PM2.5)
4.89 microgram per cubic meter
on 21-Sep-2023
Global mean Sea Level
since 1993