Confirmed: 2023 set to be the warmest year on record

The WMO provisional State of the Global Climate report confirms that 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record, regardless of the final two months of... READ MORE

Colossal Antarctic iceberg, five times larger than New York City, breaks free and drifts away from region

On November 24th, scientists from the Bristish Antarctic Survey (BAS) were astonished to observe an iceberg measuring around 4,000 square kilometers (more than twice the size of Greater London) drifting away from the... READ MORE

World surpasses critical warming threshold for the first time

On November 17th, global temperatures reached 2.07°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record.... READ MORE

Unexpected disintegration of ice shelves in North Greenland

Alarm bells ringing as rapid disintegration and weakening of ice shelves in North Greenland is observed!... READ MORE

Three Icebergs break off West Antarctica’s most Endangered Glacier

Images recently posted in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum reveal three significant breakups, or calving events, in mid-October on Pine Island Glacier’s floating ice shelf in West... READ MORE


CO2 Budget Depletion

Water Insecurity

The map above shows areas with annual precipitation loss under the 1° C above the 1850‐1900 average scenario, which we already passed in 2017. Explore more about the changes in global precipitation distribution under other scenarios presented in Probable Futures’ predictions.

Climate change is having a significant impact on water availability by changing hydrological and meteorological conditions – changes in the water cycle, melting glaciers and ice, unpredictable precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation from the land surface plus transpiration from plants), and drying water bodies. Because the Arctic feeds into the global climate system through the albedo effect (the ability of Earth’s surfaces to reflect the sun’s rays back to the atmosphere), a warmer Arctic with less ice and snow will darken the Earth, causing more of the sun’s heat to be absorbed. This, in turn, will fuel extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding and drought – all of which disrupt the water cycle and exacerbate water insecurity.

Find out more about how the Arctic affects Global Risks.


The following gauges show up-to-date data regarding key indicators in the Arctic. These indicators clearly point to the crisis at hand.

Greenland rate of ice loss
13 million l/s
on average
13 million tonnes/s
on average
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
1,411,250 km²
below 1981-2010 average on 01-Dec-2023
544,883 mi²
below 1981-2010 average on 01-Dec-2023
Arctic Amplification
4 times
faster than global average
Arctic 66N+ Wildfire emissions
25,092.70 megatonnes CO₂e
CO₂e emissions in 2023 so far
Arctic Air Quality (PM2.5)
1.24 microgram per cubic meter
on 02-Dec-2023
Global mean Sea Level
since 1993