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CO2 Budget Depletion

02 Jul 2023 | Greenland

Significant melting expected in Greenland

A second heating event and significant melt is predicted for Greenland during the first week of July. This melting will be felt especially across the northeastern part of the ice sheet and is expected to be associated with remarkable meltwater runoff as a result of coming on the back of the season’s first major melt just a few days ago.

On June 26, we forecasted an extensive melt for Greenland, especially throughout the island’s higher elevations. Indeed, this melt happened, affecting 816.88km^2, which is significantly more than the multidecadal average of 297.5km^2 for late June. As a result of such a large melt area and rate, the ability of the winter snowpack to absorb additional meltwater has been compromised, meaning that this expected melt is assumed to bring significant runoff as the water cannot be retained.

Given that this season’s warming has already led to abnormally bare areas, and with extensive melts in the forecast, we can expect significant ice loss in parts of Greenland by summer’s end.



The following gauges show up-to-date data regarding key indicators in the Arctic. These indicators clearly point to the crisis at hand.

Greenland rate of ice loss
13 million l/s
on average
13 million tonnes/s
on average
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
434,999 km²
below 1981-2010 average on 11-Apr-2024
167,953 mi²
below 1981-2010 average on 11-Apr-2024
Arctic Amplification
4 times
faster than global average
Arctic 66N+ Wildfire emissions
0.00 megatonnes CO₂e
CO₂e emissions in 2024 so far
Arctic Air Quality (PM2.5)
3.12 microgram per cubic meter
on 12-Apr-2024
Global mean Sea Level
since 1993